RIA Novosti
iLMu2lautan - Bank-bank utama di seluruh
Eropah, dan juga United Kingdom, Amerika Syarikat, dan Jepun, mempunyai risiko
besar sekiranya ekonomi lalai Rusia, menurut satu kajian baru oleh Capital
Economics.
ING Group di Belanda, Raiffeisen Bank di Austria, Societe
General di Perancis, UniCredit di Itali, dan di Jerman Commerzbank, semua telah
menghadapi kerugian yang besar di tengah-tengah krisis ruble. Pada hari Selasa,
mata wang yang mempunyai kejatuhan terbesar dalam sedekad setengah, kehilangan
20 % peratus, penurunan hampir 27 % peratus yang dialami pada tahun 1998 yang
membawa kepada lalai.
Societe Keseluruhan Besar, dikenali sebagai Rosbank di
pasaran Rusia, mempunyai pendedahan yang paling $ Amerika Syarikat 31 bilion,
atau €25 billion, menurut Citigroup Inc. penganalisis. Ini adalah bersamaan
dengan 62 % peratus daripada ekuiti ketara bank yang berpangkalan di Paris,
Bloomberg News melaporkan.
Berikutan kejatuhan, Raiffeisen, yang mempunyai €15 billion
berisiko di Rusia, menyaksikan sahamnya menjunam lebih daripada 10 % peratus.
Raiffeisen juga mempunyai pendedahan yang ketara di Ukraine, yang sedang
menghadapi satu mata wang penjualan sama seperti Rusia.
RUSSIAN Crisis LEAVES Banks AROUND the WORLD
Exposed by the BILLIONS
. . .
Major banks across Europe, as well as the UK, US, and Japan,
are at major risk should the Russian economy default, according to a new study
by Capital Economics.
The ING Group in the Netherlands, Raiffeisen Bank in Austria,
Societe General in France, UniCredit in Italy, and Commerzbank in Germany, have
all faced significant losses in the wake of the ruble crisis. On Tuesday, the
currency had its biggest fall in a decade and a half, losing 20 percent,
nearing the 27 percent drop it experienced in 1998 that led to a default.
Overall Societe General, known as Rosbank in the Russian
market, has the most exposure at US$31 billion, or €25 billion, according to
Citigroup Inc. analysts. This is equivalent to 62 percent of the Paris-based
bank’s tangible equity, Bloomberg News reported.
Following the drop, Raiffeisen, which has €15 billion at risk
in Russia, saw its stocks plummeted more than 10 percent. Raiffeisen also has
significant exposure in Ukraine, which is facing a similar currency sell-off as
Russia.
Source: Capital Economics
Banyak syarikat2 Rusia meminjam wang dari bank-bank
Eropah dan Amerika, tetapi kini nilai mata wang domestik mereka telah menurun
sebanyak lebih daripada 50 % peratus berbanding dolar, jadi kos pinjaman telah
meningkat 2 kali ganda dari segi ruble.
Tetapi Bank Negara Rusia, cuci dengan rizab tunai asing,
boleh membantu syarikat-syarikat ini keluar.
"Krisis ruble semasa tdk mempunyai kesan ketara ke
atas keupayaan membayar tanggungan hutang luar negeri Rusia," Chris
Weafer, rakan kongsi di MacroAdiv-sory di Moscow, telah menulis dalam nota pada
Rabu.
BACA lebih lanjut: 1998 dan 2014: krisis Rusia dalam
perspektif READ MORE: 1998
and 2014: Russian crisis in perspective
Ekonomi Rusia adalah tempatnya dekat lalai. Bank Negara
mempunyai lebih dpd $ 400 bilion dalam rizab mata wang asing, tidak seperti
masa yang lalu apabila mereka gagal pada tahun 1998, apabila mereka hanya
mempunyai $ 16 bilion.
"Tidak ada risiko lalai di kalangan bank-bank utama atau
syarikat perindustrian. Rizab adalah mencukupi & ruble yg lemah
meningkatkan prospek perdagangan dan lebihan akaun semasa bagi tahun 2015,
"kata Weafer.
Many Russian companies borrow money from European and
American banks, but now the value of their domestic currency has decreased by
more than 50 percent against the dollar, so the cost of the loans has doubled
in ruble terms.
But the Russian Central Bank, flush with foreign cash
reserves, can help these companies out.
“The current ruble crisis does not have any material impact
on Russia’s ability to service foreign debt obligations,” Chris Weafer, partner
at MacroAdivsory in Mos-cow, wrote in a note on Wednesday.
The Russian economy is nowhere near default. The Central Bank
has more than $400 billion in foreign currency reserves, unlike the last time
when they defaulted in 1998, when they only had $16 billion.
“There is no risk of default amongst the major banks or
industrial companies. Reserves are adequate and the weak ruble boosts the
outlook for trade and the current account surplus for 2015,” Weafer said.
READ MORE: http://on.rt.com/8cerfb
