Trak Zil-5301 yang dikeluarkan di Terbuka Syarikat Bersama
Saham Moscow "Likhachev Loji Automotif" kedai berkhidmat pelbagai-guna
"di roda" pada salah satu jalan di Moscow 1998, 06, 01 (ZIL-5301 truck
manufactured at the Open Joint Stock Moscow Company "Likhachev Automotive
Plant" serving as a store "on wheels" on one of the Moscow
streets 06/01/1998 (RIA Novosti)
iLMu2lautan - Bank-bank Rusia
telah melompat kepada memberi amaran ter-hadap histeria kesimpulan bahawa krisis
ruble semasa akan mengikut trajektori 1998, apabila negara terpaksa lalai.
Ruble yang menakjubkan 22 % peratus terjun pada hari Isnin
dan Selasa telah mendorong pelabur untuk samakan krisis hingga 1998, apabila
ruble yang hilang 27 % peratus pada 17 Ogos 1998. Walau bagaimanapun, hari ini,
kunci kira-kira Rusia adalah cukup kuat untuk mengharungi ruble jualan
besar-besaran.
Pada hari Selasa, ruble yang dilepas meragut 80 ruble ke
dolar AMERIKA SYARIKAT penanda aras. Berbanding dengan harga 32.9 kepada dolar
pada 1 Januari, 2014, ia memberi isyarat yang kehilangan nilai 58 % peratus.
Pada tahun 1998, dalam tempoh 6 bulan, mata wang yang hilang
lebih daripada 70 % peratus daripada nilainya. Inflasi meroket, bank-bank dan
syarikat-syarikat di seluruh negara runtuh, dan Rusia telah kehilangan
pekerjaan.
KDNK Rusia mengambil 7/4 untuk pulih kepada tahap sebelum
krisis selepas 1998.
‘Black Tuesday’ 2014, kerana ia yang dipanggil, telah membawa
kembali banyak kenangan sama, tetapi keadaan telah banyak berubah, menurut
pakar-pakar.
"Jika anda membandingkan krisis ini hingga 1998, ekonomi
Rusia adalah seperti malam dan siang. Pada hari-hari kita mempunyai defisit 8 %
peratus, ekonomi tidak berkembang, dan negara itu tidak mempunyai rizab.
Hari ini, ia sedang berjalan lebihan perdagangan yang 3 kali
ganda dan lebihan belanjawan sebanyak 2 % peratus, & ia mempunyai lebih
dpd 2 tahun rizab mata wang, "Ben Aris, Pengarang & Penerbit
Perniagaan Baru Eropah, memberitahu RT.
1998 and 2014:
Russian CRISIS in PERPECTIVE . . .
Russian banks have warned against hysterically jumping to the
conclusion that the current ruble crisis will follow the trajectory of 1998,
when the country was forced to default.
The ruble’s spectacular 22 percent plunge on Monday and
Tuesday has prompted investors to liken the crisis to 1998, when the ruble lost
27 percent on August 17, 1998. However, these days, Russia’s balance sheet is
strong enough to weather the ruble sell-off.
On Tuesday, the ruble grazed the 80 ruble to the US dollar
benchmark. Compared to its price of 32.9 to the dollar on January 1, 2014, it
signaled a 58 percent loss in value.
In 1998, over a six month period, the currency lost more than
70 percent of its value. Inflation skyrocketed, banks and enterprises across
the country collapsed, and Russians were left jobless.
Russia’s GDP took 7 quarters to recover to pre-crisis levels
after 1998.
Black Tuesday of 2014, as it’s called, has brought back many
similar memories, but the situation has changed greatly, according to experts.
“If you compare this crisis to 1998, the Russian economy is
like night and day. In those days we had an eight percent deficit, the economy
wasn’t growing, and the country had no reserves. Today, it is running a triple
trade surplus and a budget surplus of two percent, and it has more than two
years of currency reserves,” Ben Aris, Editor and Publisher of Business New
Europe, told RT.
Customers at an Auchan store 12/09/2014 (RIA Novosti)
Pada awal Disember, rizab pertukaran asing Rusia berjumlah
$418 billion, yang jauh melebihi $16 billion Rusia telah disimpan sehingga
menjelang lalai 1998.
"Krisis kami sebelum ini adalah benar-benar berbeza.
Sekarang kita mempunyai lebih daripada cukup rizab untuk menyediakan alat-alat
yang diperlukan untuk memadamkan sepenuhnya krisis, "Aleksey Devyatov,
seorang penganalisis Modal UralSib di Moscow, memberitahu RT.
Pada tahun 1998, Bank Negara campur tangan mata wang
dilakukan untuk naikkan ruble, tetapi akhirnya habis mereka ke titik yang mereka
tidak dapat memenuhi obligasi hutang utamanya.
"Pada tahun 1998 kami berada di tempat pertumpahan
darah, sekarang kita berada dalam keadaan yang cukup baik," kata
penganalisis Sberbank CIB Vladimir Pantyushin kepada RT.
"Saya rasa kita perlu mengambil kira risiko lalai,
tetapi rizab pasti cukup tinggi untuk menahan tekanan semasa," kata beliau
sambil menambah yang ruble terapung bebas memberikan Bank lebih fleksibiliti.
"Bahaya sekarang ialah bahawa orang Rusia akan panik &
bergegas ke bank-bank & mengeluarkan wang mereka, & yg akan menjejaskan
kestabilan sektor perban-kan & kewangan. Ini akan menjadi krisis kewangan
besar-besaran, "kata Aris.
Selepas mesyuarat dengan menteri-menteri Bank Negara dan
pegawai-pegawai kerajaan pada hari Selasa Perdana Menteri Dmitry Medvedev juga
membuat kesim-pulan Rusia akan mempunyai simpanan yang cukup untuk keluar
krisis.
Bank Negara telah bekerja di luar strategi baru untuk
menstabilkan pasaran kewangan termasuk langkah-langkah untuk meningkatkan
pembiayaan semula pertukaran asing dan menjual mata wang asing jika perlu.
Devyatov berkata satu lagi pilihan Bank Pusat adalah untuk
membuat dana yang ada kepada syarikat-syarikat Rusia, mungkin $ 20-30 bilion kredit,
sehingga mereka dapat memenuhi obligasi kewangan mereka.
Langkah ini akan bertindak sebagai 'bailout' dalaman
sementara, tetapi bank2 dijangka akan mengembalikan pinjaman, ianya tidak akan
lulus bebas. Bank Negara ini menggariskan dlm strategi mereka, tetapi tidak
senarai angka tertentu.
Bank itu juga akan terus melaksanakan opsyen repo yang
membolehkan ia untuk mengimbangi ruble Rusia, tetapi tidak akan menggunakan
mata wang rizab.
Percubaan untuk memadamkan krisis ruble dengan meningkatkan kadar
faedah memakan diri, menyebabkan panik lebih, memaksa mata wang jatuh 20 % peratus.
"Kenaikan kadar adalah tidak berkesan dan kini Bank
Pusat untuk mengikuti melalui dengan campur tangan mata wang yang besar,"
kata Aris.
At the start of December, Russia’s foreign exchange reserves
stood at $418 billion, which far exceeds the $16 billion Russia had saved up
ahead of the 1998 default.
“Our previous crises were absolutely different. Now we have
more than enough reserves to provide the necessary tools needed to fully
extinguish the crisis,” Aleksey Devyatov, an analyst at UralSib Capital in
Moscow, told RT.
In 1998, the Central Bank performed currency interventions to
prop up the ruble, but eventually exhausted them to a point they couldn’t meet
its key debt obligations.
“In 1998 we were in shambles, now we are in pretty good
shape,” Sberbank CIB analyst Vladimir Pantyushin told RT.
“I think we should consider default a risk, but reserves are
certainly high enough to withstand current pressure,” he said, adding that the
free floating ruble gives the Bank more flexibility.
“The danger now is that Russian people will panic and rush to
the banks and withdraw their money, and that will destabilize the banking and
financial sector. This would be a full-blown financial crisis,” Aris said.
After meeting with Central Bank ministers and government
officials on Tuesday Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev also concluded Russia will
have enough reserves to ride out the crisis.
The Central Bank has worked out a new strategy to stabilize the financial market including measures to
increase foreign exchange refinancing and selling off foreign currency if
necessary.
Devyatov says another option the Central Bank has is to make
funds available to Russian companies, possibly $20-30 billion of credit, so
they can meet their financial obligations. This move would act as a temporary
internal ‘bailout’, but the banks would be expected to return the loans, it
wouldn’t be a free pass. The Central Bank outlined this in their strategy, but
didn't list specific figures.
The bank will also continue to exercise its REPO option which allows it to
balance the Russian ruble, but will not use reserve currencies.
The attempt to quell the ruble crisis by increasing interest rates backfired,
causing more panic, forcing the currency to drop 20 percent.
“The rate hike was ineffective and now the Central Bank has
to follow through with big currency interventions,” Aris said.
Reuters/Jonathan Alcorn
Minyak atau kejatuhan ruble?
Krisis 1998 ruble, seperti hari ini, didorong oleh kejatuhan
harga minyak, yang pergi serendah $ 18 pada bulan Ogos 1998. Pada masa
penerbitan, Brent mentah diniagakan pada $ 59,19 setong, yang lebih daripada 50
% peratus penurunan sejak Jun 2014.
Kerajaan Rusia asalnya berdasarkan pelan belanjawan pada $
100 setong minyak, dan kemudian disemak semula kepada $ 80.
Aris masih melihat korelasi yang kuat antara kedua-dua, dan
mengatakan bahawa kita sedang melihat minyak, bukanya keruntuhan ruble.
"Ini adalah lebih daripada keruntuhan minyak daripada
kejatuhan ruble, kerana bajet persekutuan Rusia adalah bergantung kepada harga
minyak," katanya.
Minyak jatuh telah menolak ruble, kerana peniaga2 &
pelabur tlh mencipta trend & algoritma di mana langkah yang 2 bersama-sama.
Rusia memerlukan pembalikan trend ini dlm usaha utk ruble utk
menstabilkan, menurut Vladimir Pantyushin.
"Tiada pautan ajaib antara minyak dan ruble. Walaupun ianya
bergerak bersama dalam perdagangan, jika anda melihat lebih dalam, ia tidak
selalunya cara ini, "kata Pantyushin.
Sehingga lewat, ruble itu telah jatuh lebih cepat daripada
minyak, isyarat Rusia sedang menghadapi cabaran ekonomi yang lebih serius ke
hadapan selain minyak.
Dalam tempoh 6 bulan lepas, ruble telah keturunan kongruen
pesat dgn kejatuhan harga minyak, yang dipercepatkan pada bulan November dan
Disember. Para pelabur telah menarik modal daripada Rusia lebih geopolitik, &
Amerika Syarikat & sekatan EU tlh menyukarkan Rusia untuk meminjam dpd pasaran modal Barat.
Oil or ruble collapse?
The 1998 ruble crisis, like today, was driven by falling oil
prices, which went as low as $18 in August 1998. At the time of publication,
Brent crude was trading at $59.19 per barrel, a more than 50 percent decrease
since June 2014.
The Russian government originally based its budget plan on
$100 barrel oil, and later revised it to $80.
Aris still sees a strong correlation between the two, and
says we are seeing an oil, not ruble collapse.
“This is more of an oil collapse than a ruble collapse,
because the Russian federal budget is heavily dependent on oil prices," he
said.
Falling oil has pushed the ruble, since traders and investors
have created trends and algorithms where the two move together. Russia needs a
reversal of this trend in order for the ruble to stabilize, according to
Vladimir Pantyushin.
“There is no magical link between oil and the ruble. Even
though they move together in trade, if you look deeper, it hasn’t always been
this way,” Pantyushin said.
As of late, the ruble has been falling faster than oil,
signaling Russia is facing more serious economic challenges ahead besides oil.
In the last six months, the ruble has been in rapid descent
congruent with falling oil prices, which accelerated in November and December.
Investors have been pulling capital out of Russia over geopolitics, and the US
and EU sanctions have made it difficult for Russia to borrow from Western
capital markets.
